When it comes to earnings this week, Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) is primed to steal the spotlight.
The chipmaker that’s led the AI boom will be scrutinized for its recent performance, as investors and analysts warn that tech valuations have gotten perilously high.
A weak report could signal that appetite for AI trades is waning as the economy slows, inflation gains traction, and investors decide to take gains and bail.
Conversely, meeting or exceeding expectations could renew optimism and help rebuild momentum that was lost when the Nasdaq stumbled last week.
Expectations are high.
At least 12 of the 13 Wall Street firms covering the stock have it rated as a “buy,” and just one has it as a “hold.”
Their price targets for Nvidia shares are almost universally above $200 — which suggests significant upside for a stock that’s currently a shade below $180.
Morgan Stanley raised its target to $206 from $200 last week, while UBS raised its target to $205 from $175. And Wedbush raised its price target to $210 from $175.
The consensus estimate is for the company to report adjusted earnings per share of $1.02 for the second quarter, with revenue surging 50% to $46.45 billion.
Of course, the rally in tech stocks and the short-term fate of the AI boom aren’t the only thing hanging in the balance this week.
We’re set to get a slough of other earnings reports on Wednesday that could give us insight into other areas of the market.
For example…
Five Below (NASDAQ: FIVE)
Recent economic data and earnings reports have been rife with warnings about consumer spending, which continues to power the broader U.S. economy.
Specifically, we’re seeing confidence shaken by inflation (especially higher grocery prices), tariffs, and a sluggish job market.
Five Below is an obvious beneficiary of stingier spending. However, as a retailer of cheap goods, its margins could also be squeezed by tariffs.
To that last point, the company halted imports from China back in April.
So far, that hasn’t been an issue.
Five Below had a strong second quarter that added fuel to a rally that’s seen its shares climb 69% over the past year and 35% YTD.
On June 4, the company reported EPS of $0.86, topping the consensus estimate of $0.83. That’s also a significant improvement from $0.60 per share a year earlier. And revenue jumped 19.5% year over year, to $970.5 million.
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This time around, analysts expect the company to announce earnings of $0.59 per share and revenue of $989 million for the quarter.
As with Nvidia, the stock’s strength has resulted in a wave of upgrades.
Craig-Hallum raised its price target to $164 and UBS raised its target to $160. However, Mizuho, Loop Capital, and Truist Securities have the stock closer to its current valuation, with targets of $132, $130, and $128, respectively.
I can definitely see the bull case for the stock amid the broader economic picture. But some clarity on tariffs could cut either way.
It’s definitely worth watching.
CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ: CRWD)
Cybersecurity company CrowdStrike is another interesting case.
It’s been a tech darling, quadrupling in value since 2023.
More recent history has been less kind, however.
Last year, a buggy software update to its Falcon Sensor security software caused widespread problems with Microsoft Windows. As a result, roughly 8.5 million systems crashed and were unable to properly restart in what’s generally considered the largest IT outage in history.
It rebounded, and the stock is still up 23% YTD and 58% in the past year.
Though, it’s lost 10% of its value in the past month.
Analysts are mixed on its outlook.
It’s either overpriced and in danger of losing ground to competitors in the cyber sphere, or it’s got room to rebound.
Its earnings will go a long way in determining that narrative.
Wall Street analysts expect CrowdStrike to report EPS of $0.83 for quarter of fiscal 2026, which would be a 20% drop from a year ago — despite an expected 19% increase in revenue ($1.15 billion).
J.M. Smuckers (NYSE: SJM)
Finally, we have Smuckers — a household name and major kitchen brand proprietor.
In addition to its flagship jellies and jams, Smuckers also peddles Jif peanut butter, Folgers and Dunkin coffee, Crisco, Pup-peroni, and Meow Mix.
The stock has been flat this year and is down 8% in the past 12 months.
Its last earnings report in June was a major disappointment that sent shares reeling. It’s since recovered a bit but it’s not eliciting much confidence.
It’s Pet Foods and Sweet Baked Snacks segments are of particular concern.
Pet Foods saw a 13% decline in sales last quarter based on both lower volume and lower net price realization.
Sweet Baked Snacks fared even worse — especially the Hostess brand, which it acquired in 2023.
Net sales there fell by 14% with segment profit plunging 72% due to higher costs and lower net price realization.
Higher commodities costs and tariffs have both been an issue for Smuckers.
Retaliatory tariffs from Canada — where Smucker sells peanut butter, ice cream toppings and coffee — contributed to higher costs.
In fact, soaring coffee prices may be the biggest issue
Coffee prices in general are up 14.5% in the past year, with the average retail price for a pound of ground coffee hitting $8.41. This is largely attributable to a 50% tariff on Brazil — the world’s largest coffee producer.
For its part, Smuckers buys about 500 million pounds of coffee beans annually, making it the company’s largest tariff-impacted import.
Smuckers is trying to cut costs by slashing 3.5% of its workforce, but with the twin-hurdles of tariffs and inflation, it will likely continue to struggle for some time.
Still, its earnings are worth watching as a helpful barometer for tariff-related impacts and the performance of key household brands.
Analysts expect Smuckers to report adjusted EPS of $2.25 per share — 15% decline from $2.66 a year ago.
Fight on,
Jason Simpkins
Simpkins is the founder and editor of Secret Stock Files, an investment service that focuses on companies with assets — tangible resources and products that can hold and appreciate in value. He covers mining companies, energy companies, defense contractors, dividend payers, commodities, staples, legacies and more… He also serves as editor of The Crow’s Nest where he analyzes investments beyond the scope of the defense sector.
For more on Jason, check out his editor's page.
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